Chinese data disappoints as the dollar retraces

The AUD was again in focus overnight as the Chinese GDP dropped to 7% for Q1 on a year-on-year basis, which is the lowest reading since Q1 in 2009. The disappointment didn’t stop there as the March reading for industrial production fell to 5.6% and just above the November 2008 record low of 5.4%, as retail sales data then finished the treble data miss with a reading of 10.2% versus the 10.9% consensus forecast.

European trading has seen the dollar trade with a bid tone following the retail sales inspired sell-off that has now cast further doubt on the first Federal Reserve rate hike, with June now a very remote possibility. The Empire manufacturing data and industrial production is likely to be scrutinised and sensitive to downside misses, as Federal Reserve Member Kocherlakota reiterated that the US central bank should not hike rates this year – as there is enormous uncertainty of inflation reaching 2% by the 2018 target.

Today will be all about the ECB and Bank of Canada meetings and although the consensus is for both monetary policies to remain unchanged, the market will be looking for comments from ECB president Draghi on the positive green shoot signs seen of late in the European data and a possibly earlier end to QE. He is also likely to be challenged on the possibility of a Greek exit as the market will look for signs that the BoC are willing to add an additional rate cut.

EUR/USD
Supports 1.0580-1.0505-1.0460 | Resistance 1.0715-1.0780-1.0830

USD/JPY
Supports 119.10-118.80-118.20 | Resistance 120.20-120.85-121.55

GBP/USD
Supports 1.4550-1.4350-1.4230 | Resistance 1.4780-1.4820-1.4900

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