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BP US shale is resilient to oil surplus

Article By: ,  Financial Analyst
July 1, 2015 8:36 AM

The output of shale in the United States will withstand the the low oil prices according to BP's chief economist Spencer Dale.

His prediction comes on the back of talks in Vienna. World powers there are attempting to come to an agreement with Tehran – exchanging an end to trade sanctions for limits on nuclear activities.

Currently, US and European sanctions ban companies from buying Iranian oil. When sanctions were imposed, around one million barrels per day of Iranian oil were affected. Experts believe the talks are likely to result in around half this amount making its way back to the market over the course of three or four months.

On Tuesday (June 30th), Mr Dale told Reuters that it would take time for any easing of sanctions to filter through to the oil markets if a deal is agreed.

He believes that the outcome of the talks will be closer to demands put forward by the US – these indicate that restrictions should be slowly eased off after a period of monitoring. Iran, on the other hand wants more rapid change.

"It is taking a while for the market to work through OPEC's additional supply and the possibility of Iran [supplies] prolongs the process of adjustment," he explained.

Shale has not been "killed off"

Brent crude LCOc1 is currently trading around $62 (£43) and the US rig count has falled by around 60 per cent after hitting a peak in October. Mr Dale, who also served as the chief economist for the Bank of England believes that shale is still a viable form of supply.

"At this level of oil pries, we don't see that rig count coming back to these levels, but people should not conclude that US shale oil has been killed off," he said.

He added: "What we are seeing is that US tight oil will often be the most price-sensitive form of supply. It's a very flexible form of supply."

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