CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

AU Jobs data and prospect of dividend payments support the AUDUSD

Today's labour force report for January showed a +29.k rise in jobs while the all-important unemployment rate dipped to 6.4% from 6.6% in December - the result of a solid rise in employment and a small drop in the participation rate from a historical high of 6.2% to 6.1%.

The underemployment rate that measures the degree of slack in the labour market (the shortfall between the volume of work desired by workers and the actual volume of work available) fell to 8.1%, its lowest level in almost 2 years.  

The upcoming winding back of the Government’s flagship JobKeeper wage subsidy in March will lead to some job losses, particularly in industries such as tourism where demand remains soft. However with the broader labour market in good shape, the economy is expected to make further strides towards the RBA’s goal of full employment.   

Broadly todays jobs data is viewed as being supportive of the AUD/USD as are strong commodity prices. Complicating the outlook for the AUD/USD, the sharp rise this week in US bond yields that has provided some support for the US dollar.

Adding to the cross-currents, bumper earnings reports and dividend announcements from the “big 3” Australian mining giants. BHP reported a dividend pay-out that amounts to US$5.1bio, RIO a dividend pay-out of US$6.5bio, and FMG a dividend pay-out that amounts to US$3.2 bio. The bulk of this needs to be repatriated into AUD from USD’s ahead of dividend payment dates in late March/early April.

Learn more about trading FX

Technically last week’s break above trend channel resistance .7715 area allowed the AUD/USD to push towards the January .7820 high where a loss of momentum candle formed on Tuesday at the .7805 high.

This short-term upside rejection has reinforced the importance of resistance at .7810/20 and the need for a break/close above it to re-ignite the uptrend, towards .8000c. In the interim supported by the factors outlined in this article, buyers are likely to emerge on dips towards .7650.

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of the 18th of February 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

© City Index 2024