European Open RBNZ hold rates Australian consumers are buzzing

Indices mostly higher in Asia (barring Japan)

It was a strong close for the Australian share market with consumer sentiment jumping to an 11-year high. Looking past a slow vaccination rollout (not that it seems too urgent with such low cases anyway…), consumer have an optimistic outlook on family finances and the economy according to the Westpac-Melbourne institute survey.

Yet that weas clearly not the case in Japan as machinery orders unexpectedly plummeted, dashing hopes of an investment-led recovery. Machinery orders contracted -7.1% YoY in February, down from 1.5% in January, and orders contracted -8.5% MoM verses -4.5% prior. Equity makers in Japan were broadly lower with the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 falling -0.5% at one stage, helped lower by a stronger yen which saw USD/JPY hit a three-week low and fall beneath 109.00.

The FTSE 100 was effectively flat yesterday’s the close, following a bad start as oil stocks and soft GDP data initially sent it lower. Yet it recovered later in the session and closed the day with a bullish pinbar above its 10-day eMA. Looking at the four-hour chart shows a double bottom at 6853 which shows upside potential, although we’d now like to see prices recover above the January high of 6903 if it is to stand any chance of new highs today.

Learn how to trade indices

FTSE 100: Market Internals

FTSE 100: 6890.49 (0.02%) 13 April 2021

55 (54.5%) stocks advanced and 43 (42.5%) declined
86.14% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
85.24% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
83.17% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
3 hit a new 52-week high, 0 hit a new 52-week low

Outperformers

+ 5.11% - Just East Takeaway (JET.L)
+ 2.43% - Polymetal International (POLY.L)
+ 2.18% - Autotrader Group (AUTO.L)

Underperformers:

5.11% - United Utilities Group (UU.L)
2.43% - Severn Trent (SVT.L)
2.18% - Lloyd Banking Group (LLOY.L)

Forex: RBNZ hold rates, dollar on the back ropes

NZD is the strongest major after RBNZ held interest rates at record lows. Whilst they hinted that lower rates are still possible, they have hopes that the trans-Tasman bubble between Australian and New Zealand should support income and employment, which removes any immediate fears of a rate cut.

The US dollar index (DXY) edge lower overnight to print a fresh three-week low. It’s a touch below its 50-day eMA but trying to build support above the 23rd March low. We see the potential for a minor bounce from current levels, and bears may seek to fade into minor rallies below 92.00 resistance and its 200-day eMA on the four-hour chart.
EUR/USD has nudged its way to a new cycle high overnight and 1.2000 appears within reach (which is just 35 pips at the time of writing). Today’s bias remains bullish above last week’s high of 1.1928.
USD/CAD keeps on struggling around its 50-day eMA and bears appear to have the upper hand once more. If prices can break and hold beneath 1.5230 then perhaps our bearish bias will finally come to fruition.

GBP/USD is slowly making bullish progress after finding support at 1.3670. Whilst price action continues to look corrective on the daily chart, it appears demand is slowly building on the intraday timeframes. The four-hour chart shows two ‘buying tails’, with the latter being a higher low. It has drifted into resistance ahead of the open, so 1.3783 may provide interim resistance for range traders, but a break above this level clears the skies for a potential run towards 1.3850 and 1.3900.

1.3783 is a pivotal level going into the next session.
A break above it brings 1.3850 and potentially 1.3900 into focus, but any reversal pattern below it could see it headed back towards range lows.
A break below 1.3668 brings the support zone around 1.3600 into focus.

Learn how to trade forex

Commodities: Oil ready to wake up?

WTI futures are back above $60 and gapped up at the open. Now nearing the top third of its 57.25 – 62.27 range, a break above yesterday’s high brings the top of its range into focus.

Platinum futures closed below trend support outlined in yesterday’s video. If our bias is correct, price are still within a corrective phase from its February high and could be headed for 1100, or even 1000. This bias remains whilst prices remain beneath 1250.

Up Next (Times in BST)

You can view all the scheduled events for today using our economic calendar, and keep up to date with the latest market news and analysis here.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.