ASX200 higher despite concerns over new COVID scare and rebalancing

How the new case, a 26-year-old man contracted the virus is unknown. However, after being infectious within the community since the 19th of March, health alerts have now been issued across 100’s of suburbs.

Given the State Premiers' very low tolerance of new locally transmitted cases with unknown sources, it has revived memories of the pre-Christmas “Northern Beaches” outbreak in Sydney that saw State borders slam shut, throwing the plans of holidaymakers into tatters.

Testing over the next three to four days is likely to determine whether a repeat will occur. The uncertainty that this creates is likely to weigh on the mind of local traders, already nervous ahead of the rumoured large end of month and end of quarter rebalancing flows in equities and bonds.

The Goldman Sachs pension model predicts around $US60bn of US equities need to be sold for month/quarter-end, the 4th largest over the past three years. JP Morgan has in a note to clients highlighted the risks of the large selling rebalancing flows not eventuating and the risks of the market moving higher in the near term.

When two big giants of Wall Street can’t agree on something like this it doesn’t make it easy for the rest of us!

This suggests that once the uncertainly created by the situation in Brisbane and month-end is in the rear vision mirror, it would pay to focus on the levels the ASX200 needs to break to end to the sideways trading, viewed since the beginning of March.

Specifically, should the ASX200 break and close above recent highs 6860ish it is likely to result in a test of the February 6938 high, with scope towards the top of the trend channel currently near 7050.

Aware that should the ASX200 break/close below recent lows 6670/50 it would negate the short-term bullish bias and result in a test of the year-to-date low, near 6500.

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