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US dollar, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX analysis: COT report
The BOJ's intervention prevented large speculators from reaching a record level of net-short exposure, asset managers continued to trim net-long exposure to the US dollar and US indices and also flipped to net-long the VIX.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX jumps after a weaker NFP report & Apple results
US stocks are pointing to a stronger open after weaker than expected non-farm payroll report which has seen the market bring forward Fed rate cuts and after Apple's results. Apple announced a $110 million share buyback, the largest in US history. Attention turns to US services PMI data which is due to report shortly.
GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
GBP/USD inches higher ahead of the non-farm payroll report. Oil rises but is set for worst weekly loss in 3-month
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises post-Fed, Apple reports after the close
US stocks are set to open higher as the market digests the latest Federal Reserve meeting and looks ahead to tomorrow's non-far payroll report. The Fed left rates on hold and calmed worries of a rate hike. However, Fed chair Powell also warned that rates would stay high for longer. Apple is due to report after the close amid concerns over iPhone sales and China.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls despite AMZN earnings & ahead of the Fed
US stocks are pointing to a lower start in cautious trade ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged as inflation rose across the first quarter and as the jobs market remains resilient. ADP payrolls were stronger than expected. Fed jitters are overshadowing results from Amazon, which beat forecasts.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls & is on track to decline across April
Stocks are set to open lower and are set to fall across April, marking the first monthly decline since October. The selloff in stocks comes as the market frets over sticky inflation and the prospect of higher rates for longer. Today, the Fed kicks off its 2-day FOMC meeting and no change in rates is expected at the announcement tomorrow. Amazon will report after the close.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flip to net-short, JPY shorts near record high: COT report
There seems to be no fear in shorting then yen, given large speculators pushed net-short exposure to the second highest level on record last week. EUR/USD and GBP/USD also flipped to net-short exposure.
S&P 500 Analysis: SPX rises after more tech earnings & despite sticky inflation
US stocks are set to open higher after impressive numbers from Alphabet and Microsoft. Meanwhile, US core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, was hotter than expected at 2.8% YoY, which is in line with February. Personal spending was stronger than expected. The data supports the view that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates. The central bank meets next week.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises with earnings in focus, Tesla jumps
Stocks are pointing to a modestly higher start as earnings continue to roll in. However, gains could be limited after stronger-than-expected US durable goods orders revived concerns over the Fed keeping rates high for longer. Tesla is set to open 12% higher despite missing both earnings and revenue estimates. The market was more impressed by the news of an acceleration in the production of affordable EV models. Meta will report after the close.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises ahead of Tesla earnings
US indices point to a stronger start as corporate earnings continue to roll in. Earnings are providing a welcomed distraction after worries over the Fed keeping rates high for longer hurt sentiment last week. US PMI data is due shortly and is expected to show business activity grew at a faster pace. Tesla is due to report after the close after the EV maker's deliveries fell in Q1 and as the share price trades down 40% this year.
Gold’s worst day in two years, Crude oil eyes bounce above $80: Asian Open
There has been a shakeup at the top for gold, which opened the week at the high and closed the day at the low during its worst day in two years. We also look at a potential swing trade long on WTI crude oil.
EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, 2-year note analysis: COT report
EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX steady with Middle East tensions & Netflix in focus
US stocks are set for a mixed open as Iran downplays Israel's attack, helping fears fade. Futures recovered earlier losses, and oil gave back earlier losses. Netflix reported stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenues but is set to fall on the open after revenue guidance for the current quarter was modestly weaker than expected.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises as chip stocks rebound, Netflix earnings in focus
US stocks are inching higher after recent losses as chip stocks rebound following impressive earnings from TSMC and despite jobless claims coming in stronger than expected. TSMC is considered a bellwether for chip stocks, so the upbeat earnings have helped the sector, which had fallen in recent weeks. Attention is now turning to Netflix earnings after the closing bell.
EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD rises as the USD rally pauses. Oil steadies after a steep fall yesterday.
AUD/USD holds 64c ahead of AU jobs, crude oil slips 3%: Asian Open
The US dollar snapped a 6-day winning streak to allow AUD/USD to rebound from 64c in line with yesterday’s bias. And if AU employment figures perform today, it could extend its gains for a second day.
GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
GBP/USD held at a five-month low after jobs data and ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Oil rose after China's GDP growth and amid ongoing Middle Eastern tensions.
USD/JPY eyes 155, WTI crude oil looks set to bounce: Asian Open
USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.
US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024
Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.
DJIA Forecast: DJIA recovers some losses after PPI data
US stocks have steadied after yesterday's deep selloff. Mixed PPI data appears to have taken the edge off yesterday's hotter-than-forecast inflation data. US PPI eased by more than expected on a monthly basis but rose by more than expected on an annual basis. Meanwhile, US jobless claims were relatively unmoved, highlighting the ongoing resilience in the labour market. Elsewhere, the ECB left interest rates on hold at 4%.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX tumbles after hotter inflation
US stocks are falling sharply after US inflation was hotter than expected, raising doubts over the Fed's ability to cut rates early. The market is now pricing in two rate cuts this year, down from three just a few weeks ago. The first-rate cut is fully priced in for September, pushed back from July. Followig the data US treasury yields and the USD rose and stocks have slumped.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA flat ahead of tomorrow's inflation data
US stocks are set for another flat session as investors sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% YoY from 3.2% and could raise further doubts over the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates this year. The market is pricing in a 50/50 probability of a rate cut in June and expects rates to be cut by 60 basis points across the year, down from 75 basis points just a few weeks ago.
DAX, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX falls in cautious trade ahead of ECB lending survey. Oil rises as ceasefire hopes diminish, API data up next.