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EUR/USD, AUD/USD, gold look set to take advantage of US dollar weakness
The US dollar snapped its 3-day winning streak and formed a bearish outside day, helping gold reach our upside target. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are now eyeing a move towards key resistance levels.
US dollar outlook Eliminate market noise using this indicator on DXY directional risks
As one of the most liquid futures contracts worldwide that combines fundamentals and technical views, it compresses huge amounts of information to provide an instant guide on where markets see directional risks for short-term US interest rates.
Another BOJ intervention may have just stole the show from the Fed
It was the Japanese yen which stole the show after Jerome Powell’s press conference, with USD/JPY falling over 450 pips on another suspected BOJ intervention.
US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities
Momentum turned higher for the US dollar on Friday and the US 2-year is reconsidering a break above 2%, which could see them close the gap with the CRM commodities index - which have led both markets higher this year.
US dollar stumble a tremor before the true FX earthquake hits
If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.
GBP/USD, EUR/USD forecast: Here’s why the US dollar rally has stalled
The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.
US dollar, yields surge on hot US CPI, ASX set to gap lower: Asian Open
Bond yields and the US dollar surged after the latest US inflation report bought serious doubt over a June Fed cut, dragging global indices lower which sets the stage for the ASX 200 cash market to suffer today.
US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
US dollar hints at NFP rebound, ASX 200 to track Wall Street lower?
The US dollar retraced for a third day, but with NFP stats favouring a 'beat' then we're on guard for a dollar bounce.
US dollar rally hits headwinds, silver squeeze sparks potential bullish break
After the rapid repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, US economic exceptionalism is now arguably already priced into the US dollar, leaving little room for downside disappointment in upcoming US economic data.
US dollar forecast: April tends to weigh on USD, GBP/USD outperforms
Looking at seasonality patterns shows that the US dollar tends to fall against most FX majors in April, and GBP/USD has been the outperformer.
USD rallies on hawkish Fed, although USD/JPY falters below 152: Asian Open
The market appears to be doing the BOJ's work by refusing to test 152, which paints a bearish bias over the near term for USD/JPY.
US dollar analysis: DXY extends recovery - Forex Friday
Dollar is supported by better-than-expected US data and unexpected dovish moves from certain central banks outside of the US. The Fed was also dovish, but it is all about inflation data moving forward. Next week’s macro highlights include CPI data from Australia and Japan and core PCE from the US. Dollar Index technical analysis points higher – for now.
US dollar, Nasdaq 100, Gold forward returns over Easter: The Week Ahead
We have a shorter trading week due to the long Easter weekend. As there is a lack of top-tier data, we take at how the US dollar index, Nasdaq 100 and gold have performed around this time of year.
The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher
Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.
GBP/USD hints at sentiment extreme ahead of BOE, FOMC: COT report
With a BOE and FOMC meeting pending and net-long exposure for GBP/USD at or near a sentiment extreme, I cannot help but wonder if the pound it due at least a pullback. I also take a closer look at the US dollar index (DXY), gold and the Nasdaq 100.
USD bears scramble, USD/JPY eyes breakout after US data: Asian Open
US dollar bears scrambled for cover following hot US economic data ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, helping USD/JPY rise to a 5-day high and eye a potential breakout today.
USD/JPY seems best bet for bulls amid a mixed US dollar environment
The US dollar rose for a second day, but its bearish reversal candle makes it less appealing to bulls. Yet USD/JPY shows promising signs of bullish mean reversion ahead of next week's BOJ and FOMC meetings.
US dollar index on track for its worst week of the year: The Week Ahead
With Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively delivering a dovish pivot during his testimony to the house Committee, traders will no doubt jump onto weaker US economic data to reprice multiple rate cuts - and that could weigh further on the US dollar.
USD forecast: Positioning hints at headwinds for USD, 2-year yield
Short bets against the US 2-year yield continue to diminish yet remain at a sentiment extreme. And as the yield flatlined above 5% in 2023 despite aggressive short positioning, it suggests its yield may struggle to retake 5% this time around. And that could prove to be a headwind for the USD.
JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report
With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.
Can US inflation data make or break the US dollar? The Week Ahead
Whist the daily charts still appear favourable for another leg higher on the US dollar, the weekly charts and market positioning suggest some dark clouds may lurking above. And incoming CPI or inflation expectations data could make or break the dollar, if they lean enough in either direction.