Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson
Market Analyst
Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment
Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend
Experience:
• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore
• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education
• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)
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USD, CAD, Gold, Copper, VIX, Wall Street analysis: COT report
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: 4-Month high for AUD, yet resistance looms
Whilst flash PMIs, FOMC and RBA minutes are on the menu this week, the success of AUD/USD is likely to come down to how the US dollar performs.
The US dollar may not be ready to roll over just yet: The Week Ahead
We'll need to wait until next week's COT report to see the full damage of the US inflation report to USD long positioning, but with key levels holding as support we may find mean reversion works in the dollar's favour next week.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 eye a solid close for the week: Asian Open
AUD/USD and the ASX 200 have flourished this week thanks to renewed bets of Fed cuts, even though softer employment and wages data for Australia rekindled hopes of a lower RBA cash rate.
Bitcoin bounces in style as Wall Street hits new highs
On Tuesday I outlined a bullish case for bitcoin futures whilst prices remained above $60k. One soft US CPI and retail sales report later, bullish range expansion has most certainly kicked in.
AUD/USD breaks out, USD/JPY rolls over amidst worst day of 2024 for USD
The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.
USD could rally if CPI doesn’t soften from elevated levels: EUR/USD, AUD/USD
The US dollar continued to weaken ahead of today's US CPI report, helping EUR/USD and AUD/USD move towards key resistance levels. Yet traders will require a soft set of inflation figures for the pairs to stand any chance of breaking resistance.
USD falters ahead of US CPI, ASX set to track Wall Street higher? Asian Open
The USD was weaker despite higher producer prices, as traders placed greater emphasis on last month's figures being revised lower. And that now sees a 51% chance of a September Fed cut, according to Fed Fund futures.
WTI crude oil remains trapped, bitcoin looks set for a bounce
Crude oil finds itself between a rock and a hard place where technical levels are concerned, although that doesn't mean it can't at least make a minor bullish breakout before another leg lower. Price action on bitcoin appears to be more constructive for bulls, at least over the near term.
GBP/USD forecast: Volatility expected with UK data, Powell on tap
Incoming UK data today could be the difference between the BOE cutting or holding in June. Add into the mix US producer prices and Powell speech, GBP/USD us a key market for forex traders to watch today.
US dollar stabilises ahead of Powell, PPI, USD/JPY eyes 157: Asian Open
The US dollar has regained its footing heading into a Powell speech and US PPI report, whilst USD/JPY looks set to break resistance and head for 157.