GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

Fiona Cincotta
By :  ,  Senior Market Analyst

GBP/USD looks to Fed Powell & BoE speakers

  • BoE chief economist Huw Pill speaks
  • Fed Powell testifies for a second day
  • GBP/USD trades below 1.28

The pound is inching higher after two days of losses as the market looks to Bank of England commentary and another testimony from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

With UK elections now in the rearview mirror, attention is back squarely on the monetary policy outlook.

Bank of England policymakers are exiting the election blackout, as the market is pricing in around a 60% probability of a rate cut next month.

At the start of the week, known hawk Jonathan Haskell warned against cutting interest rates too soon. However, his views are not considered to be representative of consensus within the MPC.

Today, attention will be on chief economist Huw Pill, who is due to speak and whose stance is considered more representative of the committee.

Given that inflation has eased back to 2%, Huw Pill could adopt a more dovish stance, particularly given that he had previously stated that a summer cut was not unreasonable. Signs that the BoE is preparing the market for an August rate cut could pull the GBP lower.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is inching lower after yesterday's modest gains following Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress.

The market’s reaction to Powell’s comments was muted. Powell reiterated that policymakers would need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling to 2% before cutting rates. While he acknowledged that the labour market had cooled considerably and that progress had been made in cooling inflation, he also warned about cutting interest rates too soon or too late.

Today, Powell appears before the house for a second day of testimony. He is expected to reiterate yesterday's comments.

Other fed speakers, including Bowman and Goolsbee, will also speak later.

Get our exclusive guide to GBP/USD trading in Q2 2024

GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis

GBP/USD is attempting to break out above the falling trendline dating back to July last year but is struggling to extend gains meaningfully beyond 1.28.

Buyers will look to rise above 1.28 to bring 1.2893, the 2024 high, into play.

Failure to rise above 1.28 could see GBP/USD fall back below the falling trendline support at 1.2775 towards 1.27

gbp/usd forecast chart

Oil falls after China data & ahead of OPEC's monthly report

  • Chinese CPI & PPI were weak
  • The OPEC monthly report is due
  • Oil uptrend still intact

Oil prices are falling for a fourth straight day as investors consider inflation data from China and as supply concerns ease.

China's CPI rose 0.2% in June, marking a fifth straight month of increase, but it missed the expectation of 0.4%. Meanwhile, PPI fell for the 20th straight month. The data raises concerns over weak domestic demand and a slow recovery in China, the world's second-largest importer of oil.

Meanwhile, supply concerns in the Middle East are easing amid rising optimism that a ceasefire deal could be agreed upon over Gaza. Negotiations are set to resume later today.

Separately, hurricane Beryl caused more damage to the Texas energy industry than expected, relieving supply concerns. Oil and gas companies in the region restarted operations on Tuesday, and some ports reopened, ramping up output.

Looking ahead, the OPEC monthly oil outlook report will be released later today. Changes to the demand and supply outlook could impact oil prices yesterday. The EIA raised oil price forecasts but lowered the production outlook.

As well as the OPEC monthly report the EIA inventory data will be released. The API data showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week amid rising summer fuel demand.

Oil forecast- technical analysis

Oil has rebounded lower from 84.50, falling over 4% in just 4 days. However, the move lower hasn’t yet created a lower low suggesting that the uptrend remains intact.

Sellers will need to break below support at 80.50, the late June low, and the May high to negate the near-term uptrend and expose the 200 SMA at 79.50. Below here, 77.75 comes into focus.

On the upside, buyers will look to retake 84.50 to extend gains towards 87.50 the 2024 high.


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