FX Brief: EUR struggles despite industrial production surprise

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  • As US investors enter the fray, the EUR is the weakest with CHF, CAD and AUD among the strongest. Not much data expected in the North American session – US PPI being the exception.
  • The EUR fell despite news Eurozone industrial production rose 0.9% in May, beating estimates of 0.2%. China’s trade balance improved noticeably in June, but this was only because imports fell sharply (by 7.3% y/y in dollar terms) relative to exports which declined more modestly (1.3% y/y). The slowdown was undoubtedly exacerbated by China’s ongoing trade dispute with the US. Indeed, in the first half the year, China’s exports to the US fell by more than 8%, while imports dropped by almost 30%.
  • Concerns over Deutsche Bank continued to hold back mainland European stocks, while Wall Street futures remained resilient after the S&P 500 crossed the 3K for the first time. Crude oil looks set to end the week higher, thanks to ongoing Middle East tensions, falling US crude inventories and storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico – all raising short term supply shock risks.
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