European Open: Futures rise, US inflation in focus

Asian Indices:

• Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 44.9 points (0.61%) and currently trades at 7,435.00
• Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 541.44 points (1.92%) and currently trades at 28,763.94
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has risen by 502.09 points (2.12%) and currently trades at 24,241.15
• China's A50 Index has risen by 75.86 points (0.49%) and currently trades at 15,423.04

UK and Europe:

• UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently up 40.5 points (0.55%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,531.87
• Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 34.5 points (0.81%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,316.04
• Germany's DAX futures are currently up 93 points (0.58%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 16,034.81

US Futures:

• DJI futures are currently up 36 points (0.1%)
• S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.5 points (0%)
• Nasdaq 100 futures are currently up 3 points (0.06%)

The positive lead from Wall Street was embraced across Asia overnight, with all major benchmarks across the region up from their opens. Jerome Powell was confident that the US economy could weather any storm from Omicron and Fed tightening. China’s inflation data was also softer than expected, which raises the prospects for further stimulus from Beijing following a slew of soft data in December which points to weak growth in Q4. The Hang Seng and Nikkei are top performers and rose around 2%. Futures markets are all in the green ahead of the open.

Perhaps this positive vibe can help lift the FTSE 100 above 7500 today. A bullish engulfing candle formed on the daily chart below that key level yesterday, and futures markets suggests it can open above it today. Next resistance is near the weekly and monthly R1 pivots around 7545, then onto 7600 or the upper trendline. Whichever comes first. Of course, US inflation is the key event today so if it comes in as strong as hoped (or feared) then it could just as easily knock the wind out of equity bulls. In which case, 7400 seems achievable for a downside target over the next couple of days.

FTSE 350: Market Internals

• 193 (54.83%) stocks advanced and 148 (42.05%) declined
• 12 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 8 fell to new lows
• 51.7% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
• 86.65% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
• 14.77% of stocks closed above their 20-day average

Outperformers:

• + 11.4% - Micro Focus International PLC (MCRO.L)
• + 6.89% - Darktrace PLC (DARK.L)
• + 5.39% - Hays PLC (HAYS.L)

Underperformers:

• -10.8% - Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW.L)
• -5.86% - Syncona Ltd (SYNCS.L)
• -3.10% - TUI AG (TUIGn.DE)

GBP/JPY eyes October high

Between the December low and January high, GBP/JPY has risen just under 6%. And that’s a relatively strong move in currency terms. The rally couldn’t quite reach the October high and has since pulled back, yet we note that 156 provided support ahead of yesterday’s bullish candle, and overnight trade is trying to break higher form its bull flag. Ultimately, we think this might be able to move to the October high, near the weekly and monthly R1 pivots. Given the confluence of resistance we suspect that level will hold initially. Our bias remains for a run to the October high whilst prices remain above the weekly pivot point at 156.54. A break below 156 warns of a correction.

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