Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 24 Apr)

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EUR/USD – Vulnerable for a range bearish breakdown


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  • Undergone the expected minor “bearish flag” breakdown and hit the upper limit of the medium-term rang support of 1.1190/1175 as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap).
  • No clear signs of bearish exhaustion yet, maintain bearish bias with tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 1.1245 (the intersection of the former minor “bearish flag” range support from 18 Apr 2019 low & minor descending trendline from 17 Apr 2019  high) for a further potential push down to retest 1.1175 lower limit of the medium-term range support in place since 12 Nov 2018 before a bearish breakdown to target the next near-term support at 1.1120 (Fibonacci expansion cluster & swing low areas of 30 May/20 Jun 2017).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.1245 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 1.1280 and even 1.1320 (also the medium-term descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high)

GBP/USD – Bearish breakdown from minor range configuration


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  • Broke below the 1.2960 lower limit of the short-term neutrality range zone as per highlighted in our previous report. Yesterday’s price action has validated the bearish breakdown from it’s a minor range configuration in place since 11 Mar 2019.
  • Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounces below 1.3020 key short-pivotal resistance (also the minor descending channel resistance from 28 Mar 2019 high) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 1.2910/2890 follow by 1.2800 (also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 3-month up move from 03 Jan 2019 low to 13 Mar 2019 high & 14 Feb 2019 swing low).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.3020 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 1.3130.   

USD/JPY – Bulls need to break above 112.10


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  • No major changes to its key elements. Maintain bullish bias above 111.80/65 key short-term pivotal resistance and an hourly close above 112.10 reinforces another potential impulsive upleg towards 112.50 before 112.95 (also the medium-term descending resistance from 03 Oct 2018 high).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close below 111.65 negates the bullish tone for another round of slide to retest the 110.85 support.

AUD/USD - Further push down to retest medium-term range support


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  • Hit and broke below the 0.7060 minor range support/target as per highlighted in our previous report reinforced by a weaker Q1 AU CPI (1.6% y/y versus consensus of 1.7% y/y). Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 0.7090 (former minor swing low areas of 05/08 Apr 2019 & pull-back of the former ascending support from 08 Mar 2019 low) for a further potential push down to target the 0.7000/6980 medium-term range support.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 0.7090 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 0.7140 intermediate resistance (also the medium-term range resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high).

Charts are from eSignal

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