Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 16 May)

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EUR/USD – Further potential push down in progress


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  • No major changes on its short-term elements, the bounce from yesterday’s European session low of 1.1176 had stalled at the pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending support from 26 Apr 2019 low at 1.1225. Maintain bearish bias with 1.1260 remains as the key short-term pivotal resistance for another round of potential slide to retest 1.1120 in the first step.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.1260 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further corrective push up towards the 1.1320 key medium-term resistance.  

GBP/USD – Potential residual push down in progress


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  • Drifted down lower as expected and breached below the first target/support at 1.2870 as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). Maintain bearish bias and do expect a minor bounce first as the hourly Stochastic oscillator has inched upwards from its oversold region and still has not reached an extreme overbought level. Tightened the key short-term pivotal resistance to 1.2940 (also the minor descending trendline from 03 May 2019 high) for another round of potential push down to target the 1.2800 follow by 1.2750 next before risk of consolidation sets in.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.2940 invalidates the residual push down scenario to kickstart another corrective rebound sequence towards next intermediate resistance at 1.3190.

USD/JPY – 109.75 is key resistance to watch


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  • The rebound from yesterday’s U.S. session low of 109.13 had stalled right below 109.75; the upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone as per highlighted in our previous report. Interestingly, its price action has started to evolve into a minor “Expanding Wedge” configuration since 10 May 2019 that indicates a further potential push down sequence at this juncture.
  • Flip back to a bearish bias with 109.75 as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target 108.95 and 108.65 major support (also the primary ascending range support from Jun 2016 low).  On the other hand, an hourly close above 109.75 opens up scope for a corrective rebound sequence towards 110.20 (minor swing high area of 08 May 2019 & Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster)

AUD/USD – No clear signs of bearish exhaustion


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  • Continued to drop lower as expected and met the first target/support of 0.6910 in today’s Asian session after the release of AU jobs data for April where it reflected a mix picture with the unemployment rate inched up slightly higher to 5.2% (above consensus of 5.1%) while the participation rate inched up slightly higher to 65.8% (above consensus of 65.7%).
  • No clear signs of bearish exhaustion yet. Maintain bearish bias with 0.6965 remains as the key short-term pivotal resistance for another round of potential drop to target 0.6880 next and a break below it exposes the major support at 0.6830 (the lower boundary of the minor descending channel in place since 17 Apr 2019 high, Fibonacci expansion & 15 Jan 2016 swing low area).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 0.6990 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the 0.7045 range resistance formed after the recent RBA meeting on 07 May.

Charts are from eSignal





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