Currys FY preview: Where next for the Currys share price?

Josh Warner
By :  ,  Market Analyst

When will Currys release full year earnings?

Currys will release full year earnings covering the 12 months to May 1 on the morning of Thursday July 7.

 

Currys earnings consensus

Analysts forecasts Currys will report a 5% fall in annual revenue to £9.83 billion and a 2% drop in adjusted pretax profit to £152.9 million. Notably, that is below the goal set by the company back in January that said profits would exceed £155.0 million. 

 

Currys FY earnings preview

Retailer Currys benefited from a surge in demand for electronics during the pandemic but is now facing a potential slowdown in demand for computers, smartphones and other devices as consumers tighten their belts and fears of a recession grow. 

We have already seen like-for-like sales start to fall this year, but it is important to remember that they remain elevated from what we saw before the pandemic hit. Like-for-likes were down 3% from the year before in the first 8 months of the financial year, but remained 11% above pre-pandemic levels. Customers splurged on tech during lockdown when people had to shift to remote working and keep themselves entertained, but electronics could now be among those items scrubbed from the shopping list as people prioritise how to spend their pay packets.

The UK & Ireland has seen the biggest decline in sales this year and this could continue as the squeeze on incomes appears to be hitting Brits worse than over the Channel. This is expected to have remained the case in the second half. Analysts have pencilled-in a 5.5% decline in like-for-like sales in the UK & Ireland over the full year, compared to a milder 2.6% fall from the Nordics. Greece will remain the bright spot after being the only region to grow in the first half, when sales were up 8%, but that is expected to have also suffered a slowdown in the second half to even out at 6.3% over the full year.

Below is an outline of how like-for-like sales have performed in recent years and with the estimates for both the second half and full year, to demonstrate the volatile nature of sales:

Region

FY 2020

FY 2021

H1 2022

H2 2022E

FY2022E

UK & Ireland

1%

14%

-3%

-9.3%

-5.5%

Nordics

4%

16%

-1%

-3%

-2.6%

Greece

2%

11%

8%

4%

6.3%

 

Currys has vowed to have ended the year with at least £100 million in net cash, down from £250 million at the end of the first half, which will cast the spotlight onto cashflow as it grapples with cost inflation. This will be a peak year for capital expenditure, helping free up more cash going forward, while exceptional costs also continue to fall away after dragging down profits for several years.

The fact analysts forecast Currys will miss its goal to deliver at least £155 million in profit suggests markets believe it was a tough end to the financial year, which will also cast doubt over the outlook. Analysts currently forecast that like-for-like sales will decline 3.0% in the new financial year as demand continues to unwind, although they anticipate adjusted pretax profit will jump over 10% to £169.4 million.

Over the medium-term, Currys is aiming to deliver £1 billion in cumulative free cashflow between the 2019/20 to 2023/24 financial years (and has so far booked around £885 million up to the end of the first half) and is trying to expand its adjusted Ebit margin to 4% by the end of that period, having last come in at just 1.9%.

Notably, Ian Dyson, the former chairman of fast-fashion firm ASOS, will takeover as chair of Currys in September.

 

Where next for the Currys share price?

Currys shares have been in freefall for seven months, having plunged over 43% since November. Shares appear to have settled, at least for now, after hitting a two-year low last week.

The stock currently trades at around the 69p mark. The first two levels of resistance span back to May 2020, first at 68.50p and then to 67.0p. Any move below here would be more significant as it opens the door to below 62.0p and brings pandemic-induced lows back into play.

Volumes had been in decline for around a month but have started to rise again over the past five days, suggesting the current trend could continue, although the five-day average volume at time is still well below the 100-day average. Plus, this is countered by the bullish divergence with the RSI in 2022, with the indicator having climbed higher despite the stock continuing to lose ground.

Any recovery could be swift considering the amount of value lost in recent months. The 50-day moving average at 82.65p and the 100-day average at 88.35p are the first two upside targets in the crosshairs. From there, it can look to the key level of resistance seen throughout April at 97.30p, and then February’s ceiling at 106p – largely in-line with the 200-day moving average. A breach above here could be more significant as it would bring 124p into play. The 11 brokers that cover the stock remain cautious but believe the selloff has been overdone this year with an average target price of 115.1p, implying there is over 66% potential upside from current levels.

Can the Currys share price recover after sinking to two-year lows?

 

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