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Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and DAX analysis: Technical Tuesday - April 16, 2024
The S&P 500 extends losses to third week amid raised geopolitical risks and rising bond yields. Concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is at the forefront of investors’ minds. The situation remains volatile with Israel seeking revenge for Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saturday.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX inches higher ahead of Powell
US stocks are set to open modestly higher in cautious trade ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. US treasury yields rose to the highest level since November, a day after stronger-than-expected US retail sales data, which could limit the upside for stocks. Earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley were better than expected.
Weekly equities forecast: Netflix, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble
Earnings season starts to ramp up this week with earnings from Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble are among those reports that investors will be watching closely.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls as banks kick off Q1 earnings season
US stocks open lower as traders have plenty to worry about- rising concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, hotter-than-expected inflation this week, and some disappointment from the banks as they kick off earnings season. Riskier assets such as stocks are under pressure amid fears that Iran could attack Israel this weekend. Meanwhile, safe haven Gold rose to a fresh record high, and the USD rallies.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX tumbles after hotter inflation
US stocks are falling sharply after US inflation was hotter than expected, raising doubts over the Fed's ability to cut rates early. The market is now pricing in two rate cuts this year, down from three just a few weeks ago. The first-rate cut is fully priced in for September, pushed back from July. Followig the data US treasury yields and the USD rose and stocks have slumped.
S&P 500 outlook: Stocks ease ahead of US CPI and bank earnings
June rate cut uncertainty amid economic resilience, as stocks wobble ahead of CPI. S&P 500 technical analysis shows bullish trend is starting to weaken.
S&P 500 analysis: Sticky inflation concerns could derail stocks rally
S&P 500 analysis: Can the rally continue even as yields rise? Rising crude oil prices pose additional risk to inflation outlook. Technical analysis shows potential crack in bullish trend, but confirmation is still needed.
S&P 500 analysis: Index ends +10% in Q1 after a strong Q4 – what now?
Can the stock market rally continue after a strong performance in the first quarter? As we start Q2, Chinese PMIs, German CPI and US non-farm payrolls are among the upcoming week’s highlights. S&P 500 technical analysis shows strong bullish trend, pointing to further strength.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls ahead of US inflation data, Fed speakers
US stocks are set to drift lower on the open after record highs last week. Stocks rallied on expectations that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in June and will squeeze in 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. Attention is on core PCE inflation data on Friday and several Fed speakers across the week, which could give more clues on the future path for rate cuts.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls on caution ahead of the Fed meeting
US stocks point lower, and nerves start to show as the FOMC's two-day meeting kicks off. The market is fully pricing in that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but it has also pushed back on when the Fed could start rate cuts. The possibility of a rate cut in June is being priced in at a little over 50/50, which has lifted the USD and is dragging on demand for stocks. Nvidia falls after the unveiling of its latest AI chip failed to attract more buyers into the stock.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises despite hotter-than-expected inflation
US stocks point to a higher start despite US inflation and core inflation coming in hotter than expected. The sticky inflation reading raises questions over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates three times this year, as indicated in the dot plot in December. While stocks are rising, gains could be limited. The USD is edging higher after the data. Oil struggles for direction ahead of the OPEC monthly market report.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises on signs of the jobs market cooling
US stocks are set to pen marginally higher, adding to yesterday's gains after jobless claims added to evidence that the US labour market is cooling and ahead of a second day of testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before Congress. Yesterday, Powell said that a rate cut this year could be likely but gave no clues on the timing or the scale. Neel Kashkari was more hawkish, saying no more than two hikes would be needed this year.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX struggles as sentiment softens
US stocks point to a weaker start, extending yesterday's losses as investors look cautiously ahead to Fed Powell's testimony and US jobs data later in the week; today, US ISM services PMI will be released and comes as service sector inflation remains sticky. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that there is no urgency to cut rates; his comments also dented sentiment.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX hits a record high after Nvidia earnings
S&P 500 rises to a fresh all time high after blowout Nvidia results. Nvidia posed a 265% rise in revenue and a 769% rise in net earnings sending the share price 13% higher. Note that profits are rising by more than the share price! The market is overlooking US jobless claims which fell to 201k, supporting the Fed's view that it is too early to cut rates.
USD/JPY forecast: 151 seems plausible, 152 may be a stretch
USD/JPY is clinging to 150 despite the weaker US dollar on Tuesday, as there seems little reason for traders to bid the yen. And unless we receive a compelling reason to buy then yen via a surprisingly hawkish BOJ or broad risk-off environment, it becomes difficult to construct an overly bearish case for USD/JPY whilst the Fed remain quiet about rate cuts.
US dollar, Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold analysis: Forward testing US CPI
Attention shifts the today’s US CPI report, which is arguably the biggest event of the week. So we crunch some numbers on the US dollar, S&P 500, Nasdaq and gold to see how they have performed around it.
S&P 500 taps 5k record, ASX futures to extend bull-flag breakout?
The S&P 500 tapped 5k for the first time ever. But do traders have the appetite to extend its trend heading into the weekend? For now, our focus is on a bull flag pattern on the ASX 1-hour chart.
S&P 500 hits record high, futures hint at break above 5,000
The S&P 500 reached a fresh record high and stopped just 5 points short of the 5,000 milestone thanks to strong earnings. But futures charts and market positioning suggest the S&P cash market could break higher.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after the Fed inspired selloff
US stocks are pointing to a positive open, recovering after a steep selloff yesterday when Fed Chair Powell pushed back on a March rate cut, saying that it was not his base case scenario. US jobless claims and Challenger cuts point to a slight weakening in the labour market ahead if tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. Big tech is in focus with Apple, Amazon and Meta due to report after the close.
S&P500 Forecast :SPX flat ahead of a busy week
US stocks are pointing to a flat open as investors sit on the sidelines ahead of a busy week with US tech stock earnings and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision due on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates on hold in January and the market is looking for clues over when the Fed may start to cut rates. Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings tomorrow after the close.
S&P500 Forecast :SPX struggles after personal spending jumps
US stocks are pointing to a nixed open after US core PCE eased to 2.9% YoY in December, but personal spending jumped 0.7%, supporting the view that the US is heading for a soft landing, but the Fed may not need to cut interest rates soon. Intel is set to fall on the open after disappointing Q1 guidance.
S&P 500 analysis: Stock markets starting to look a little overstretched – correction looming?
The key question today is whether we are near at least a temporary peak in the ongoing phase of the rally, or if we persist in moving forward despite apprehensions about valuations, the developments in the Red Sea, and the postponement of interest rate cuts.