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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX subdued at the end of a strong Q1
US stocks are almost unchanged, hovering around record highs as investors weigh up an upward revision to US Q4 GDP and hawkish comments from Fe Governor Christopher Waller. Waller warned that the Fed was in no rush to cut rates. US Q4 GDP was upwardly revised to 3.4% annualized. Today is the final trading day of the first quarter which has seen 10% gains.
EUR/USD analysis: Will US dollar retreat again?
Short-term interest rate differentials have been shifting in favour of the US dollar, but with most of the positive news priced in, the dollar may ease back as we head towards Q2 and look forward to rate cuts in or around June. For now the euro is pressured by weakness in German data.
Gold analysis: precious metal ignores dollar, yields strength
Key factors precious metals traders will be watching for the rest of this week are discussed in this article. US dollar and yields rise following on hawkish comments from the Fed’s Christopher Waller, but this has not prevented gold from rising back above $2200. Technical analysis point to new records for gold.
Trade ideas
USD/JPY forecast: Stalemate looms on BOJ intervention threat, range trading favoured
The threat of intervention from the BOJ has increased, likely limiting upside for USD/JPY in the near to medium-term. But extremely wide interest rate differentials and buoyant markets suggest it shouldn’t be significantly lower. It points to a stalemate for yen bulls and bears but opens the door for traders to play existing ranges.
Forex Seasonality – April 2024: GBP/USD’s Most Bullish Month, USD/CAD’s Most Bearish
GBP/USD has historically seen its strongest gains in April, while USD/CAD has seen its worst performance in April and is testing resistance at its 4-month highs near 1.3600.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA stocks drift higher amid a light calendar
US stocks are set to rise on the open, helped higher by rises in AI stocks and amid a quiet economic calendar. Attention will be on Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who is due to speak later. Otherwise, the main focus is Friday's core PCE data, which comes when the market is closed for the Good Friday holiday. Today oil prices are falling 1% after oil inventories rose sharply.
Crude oil analysis: WTI steady ahead of inventories data
Crude oil looks set to end March and the first quarter higher. Oil prices have been buoyed by easing demand concerns and sustained supply cuts by the OPEC+. Meanwhile WTI technical analysis points higher, for as long as $79-$80 support area holds.
USD/JPY, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch
USD/JPY rises to a 34-year high & is on intervention watch. FTSE falls despite Chinese industrial profits rising.
USD/CNH looks eerily similar to USD/JPY right now. Multi-year highs incoming?
There’s not much difference between the USD/CNH and USD/JPY on the weekly charts, other than the former appears to be lagging the latter right now. With the yen falling to fresh multi-year lows even with the threat of intervention from the BOJ, will the yuan be next?
AUD/USD forecast: Why this textbook bearish pattern may be prone to failure
At the end of last week, I highlighted a potential bearish continuation pattern on AUD/USD. But the further this week has progressed, the more I have questioned its potential to break lower.
AUD/USD bears eyeing downside after Australia’s inflation undershoot
Australia’s inflation report undershot expectations in February, although there’s still evidence of stickiness in underlying price measures. Markets reacted by bidding Australian government bonds which have pressured AUD/USD, seeing it test uptrend support. A break could see the Aussie revisit its 2024 lows.
Gold forecast: Pullback on the radar - just don’t expect Armageddon
Looking at an equal-weighted gold basket against FX majors, its bullish character has certainly changed since breaking above its previous ATH.
DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecast: US Index Uptrends Remain Healthy for Now
The DJIA and SPX are seeing bullish consolidations after breaking out to a record highs last week, while the Nasdaq 100 is testing the top of its 1-month range at record high, with a potential breakout targeting 19K.
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